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UB Political Scientist Gives Historical Edge to Bush

By Mark Scott

Buffalo, NY – Circumstances leading up to the 2004 presidential election seem to point to another tightly contested race. But a University at Buffalo political scientist says if history is any indicator, President Bush's status as the incumbent should lead to his re-election.

Professor James Campbell says one-term presidents who returned their party to the White House rarely lose re-election. In the 20th century, just one president fitting that category, Jimmy Carter, lost. The elder George Bush lost his re-election bid after just one-term, but his party had been in the White House 12 years at that point. Professor Campbell is an expert in US presidential campaigns.

Click the "listen" icon above to hear Mark Scott's interview with Professor Campbell.