It was made formal Tuesday night in Cleveland. Donald Trump is the Republican Party's candidate for U.S. President. Although his roots are in New York City, can the GOP candidate win in a state where Republican candidates do well Upstate but are challenged by overwhelming Democratic support in New York City?
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading now-official Republican candidate Trump by 12 points in New York State. That lead is boosted in great part by Clinton's 3-to-1 lead over Trump among surveyed registered voters based in New York City.
Take the New York City factor away, though, and Trump leads Clinton in Upstate New York by a 48-to-36 margin.
"Donald Trump, like Rob Astorino against Governor Cuomo, is going to win Upstate New York with 60-plus percent of the vote," predicted Congressman Chris Collins, who helped nominate Trump Tuesday evening at the GOP Convention in Cleveland.
Collins readily acknowledges, though, the sharper contrast in Democratic support and Republican support in New York City. He estimated margins there in the range of 85-15 to 90-10. The congressman expects Trump to win Staten Island in November. Can he gain ground in the other boroughs of New York City?
"It's too early to say whether it's possible whether it's possible to take a 90-10 normal election and turn it into 70-30. That's all we'd need. 70-30 and we win," Collins replied, noting that Trump also scores well among voter blocks including police officers, firefighters and members of the military.
Could Trump get an uptick upon the conclusion of the Republican National Convention? Quinnipiac University assistant poll director Maurice Carroll suggests this race has already been too unpredictable to tell.
"Normally, after a convention, a candidate moves up a little bit. Sometimes it stays," Carroll said. "This year, all bets are off because it's a crazy, crazy election."
There is also a risk to the Trump campaign that Hillary Clinton instead gets the uptick, as the Democrats follow next week with their national convention in Philadelphia.
