Dave Debo: I think the storyline at the beginning of the night was that Lee Zeldin had a chance that going into this Kathy Hoko, the Democrat was looking a little weak, and that she didn't pivot soon enough to the issues of crime and the economy. But as more and more numbers start to come in, that myth is starting to evaporate. That storyline isn't necessarily there at the end of the night.
Dave Lombardo: Yeah, with the caveat that we haven't seen some numbers from some large counties, especially the New York City suburbs, it appears that Governor Kathy Hochul is going to be reelected tonight, or should I say, elected to her first full term? And it really the question is the margin of victory. And I think one of the reasons we can be pretty confident about her victory is how she's performing out in Western New York, for example, in Niagara County, she's dancing around 38%. And that's very comparable to what Andrew Cuomo got in 2014, and 2018. And in Erie County, she's hovering right around 52%, all night long, and Cuomo in his performance in 2014. And 2018, was also right around that number in Erie County. So those are really good signs for her as we expect to hear from her at some point in the night to declare victory.
Debo: Do you think that the strong local showing in Erie County is in any way reflective of the fact that she's from here?
Lombardo: I think it might help to a certain degree. But you know, that Western New York voters or even the Democrats aren't exactly progressive and aren't exactly lining up every year to vote for Democrats. So this was a electorate that Kathy Hopewell needed to make an appeal to and we've seen her out and about in western New York in recent days. And we've seen her spend time and energy in policies that are designed to help like Western New York, for example, the subsidies for the Buffalo Bills stadium, some investments in East Buffalo following that tragic shooting earlier this year. So she definitely hasn't taken the area for granted. And she's been working for these votes.
Debo: What did Lee Zeldin do wrong if indeed there was a wrong there?
Lombardo: So I think you have to say that he had a real uphill battle to begin with when we think about the fact that there's more than a two to one democratic enrollment advantage. I think if he had to be blamed for doing anything wrong, it's the fact that he led a campaign that played too much to his base. I think the crime message obviously resonated with some suburban independent voters, but I don't think he did enough to reach out to other Independents and Democrats specifically on issues like education, child care, the economy, more specifically, things that people are definitely thinking about, and things that he kind of glossed over for most of his campaign.
Debo: You just spoke of the two to one difference throughout the state. Let's look at the rest of the top of the ticket. Thomas DiNapoli, Democrat reelected, Letitia James Democrat reelected, and the State Senate and Assembly will remain in Democratic control. Is the Republican Party completely done in New York State?
Lombardo: Definitely not because there are some real bright spots for the Republicans further down the ballot. At this point, it looks like they're going to upset some members of the assembly in Brooklyn and Brooklyn is a real strong Democratic stronghold in the Hudson Valley region. In the incumbent Democratic member of Congress, Sean Patrick Maloney is fighting for his life against Republican Assemblyman Mike Lawler. But in Western New York, the Democrats are doing pretty well. We've had of we have the Battle of incumbents in the Erie County area with Democrat Sean Ryan taking on Democrat Ed Rath sorry, taking on Republican Ed Rath for the 61st Senate district. And it looks like Democrats are going to hold on to that seat. So statewide Republicans still have big challenges, but they definitely have some opportunities and inroads around the state.
Debo: Similarly I look at the 147th assembly district Cheektowaga area near us. Monica Wallace, the incumbent has won over Frank Smierciak. This is a do over I recall two years ago, Smierciak. On election night, was the apparent winner. It was only the absentees that pushed her over the line and back into incumbency. Is this another case where Republicans just weren't able to turn it and make it work?
Lombardo: Yeah, I think you have to return to the fundamentals of this district, which is 46% Democrats 23% Republicans and 23% unaffiliated voters. That is a better district than the two candidates ran on in 2020 for Democrats, so I could have seen an environment with a really big red wave where Monica Wallace got knocked off. But with a wave that appears to be maybe enough to knock a small child down. Monica Wallace looks like she's in pretty good shape tonight.
Debo: And similarly, the 149th Assembly district, one term incumbent Democrat, Jonathan Rivera has won over Ralph Hernandez, a prominent former member of the Buffalo School Board, both of them prominent in the Hispanic community here to Democratic power.
Lombardo: Right, Rivera got 65% of the vote in this version of the district in 2020. And this time around, the new district is 51%. Democratic. So that's a real hard barrier to entry for any Republican no matter what kind of outreach or connections you might be able to make with Hispanic voters there.
Debo: It's interesting, too, that you say this version of the district, we need to remember that all the senate districts and all the assembly districts in addition to the federal congressional ones, but on the state level, all the Senate and all the Assembly districts were redrawn this year, do you think that helped one party more than another? Certainly the Republicans thought so when they tried to go to court and toss it out.
Lombardo: Right. So the districts represented advantage for Democrats in both houses, the assembly majority got to draw their own lines. But they've been doing that for decades now. So it wasn't a huge advantage. In the Senate, it was a big difference, even though Democrats eventually had the power taken away from them, because the previous lines that they were fighting on had been drawn by Republicans. And now while the lines weren't drawn by Democrats in the Senate, the lines were drawn by a supposedly neutral arbiter. So that's a better playing field for Democrats than when Republicans had the pen and got to draw the lines. So ultimately, both lines are better for Democrats.
Dave Debo: Talk to me about what this means for Kathy Hochul. Some people even called her the accidental governor, now apparently, elected in her own right.
Lombardo: Well, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters for her in the next four years is if she gets 51% of the vote. And for people like myself and other political nerds, the margin might matter to us. But in terms of being able to govern, no one's going to question her ability to sign or veto bills for the next four years because of her margin. Theoretically, it might make her weak four years from now, if someone wants to challenge her if she wants to run again, but she's got four years to cement herself if she does choose to run again. And I think it will kind of determine her role in the party moving forward, whether she's able to be a power broker in down ballot races in the future, I don't necessarily see that maybe she has future ambitions. And this election isn't exactly going to catapult her into any other office. So I think this is mostly just at the end of the day about who controls the Executive Mansion. And now she's going to get four years to really set the agenda that she wants to have for New York.
Debo: All of that's an interesting point. Correct me if I'm wrong here. Governor Cuomo did not necessarily have a mandate, but he was certainly not a weak governor.
Lombardo: Yeah, Governor Cuomo one with pretty big margins right from the get go is closest victory was in 2014, when he won by 14 percentage points. He also demonstrated though an ability and a knowledge to navigate Albany in a way that she really hasn't shown at this point, a little over a year into her time running the state. He knew where the bodies were buried, he knew which levers to push in order to exert pressure and to get his way. I think she's still figuring this out. Because we have to remember, she's only been in Albany since 2014. Before that she served in Congress, she served in local government. This is a guy who grew up in Albany. So I think it's understandable that she has a bit of a learning curve in terms of executing power.
Debo: The venue where she is celebrating tonight, is one that used to be a former Bank building character with the elderly reporter tells me that it's a large space. And at the very top of it, there is a glass ceiling. The thought is that she picked that room. So she could mention that in her podium speech. It's something that certainly she gets to point to, but does her femininity matter? Do you think?
Debo: I don't think it was a big talking point for this race. The same way, Hillary Clinton's candidacy in 2016 was, I think the real history making occasion was when she became governor last year now getting reelected, excuse me getting elected as the first woman governor who seems to hold a bit less substance and attention from people because of the history she made last year.
Debo: Assuming that her victory holds, what kind of issues do you think she needs to tackle now?
Lombardo: Well, the conventional wisdom is that she's going to continue to try to address some of the criminal justice issues that her Republican challenger has highlighted over the last year plus, since he's been on the campaign trail, and that largely involves the rollout of the cash bail changes, it's likely she's going to push for additional changes in this area, especially because she's going to get pressure from New York City Mayor Eric Adams, for additional work in this area. But besides that, she really hasn't laid out a vision for the future. And I think that's one of the critiques about her campaign is that she hasn't really explained what she wants to do in the future. She's talked a little bit about the investments she's made so far in 2022. But we don't really know what she's going to do. She's a centrist Democrat. So I don't expect anything too crazy from her, at least in 2023.
Debo: Certainly, Eric Adams in New York City Mayor was a factor. But I wonder if you can say and if not, please, please jump on in. Did the Zeldin scare the possibility that he was going to win early on the polls that showed he had a shot? Did that lead to her eye opening on the importance of crime issues? Do you think?
Lombardo: Yeah, I think we saw a clear direction change in early October from the Governor's campaign, after a few public polls came out showing her with a lead below 10 percentage points. And in the wake of that she really tried to engage on the issue of crime. I don't think her messaging was particularly effective, in large part because it takes time for messages that are complicated to sink in with voters. And if you're going to try to hammer that home just a few weeks before Election Day, and you're trying to offer a very nuanced picture of the public policies you're advancing. It doesn't necessarily sink in and even earlier tonight, we heard from the state attorney general Letitia James when she did her victory speech that she wants to revisit some criminal justice stuff. So I think all across the top of the ticket, there's an acknowledgement from Democrats, that there's more work to be done on this front. And not just with regards to gun control measures and going after illegal guns.
Debo: And overall, did anything surprise you tonight? Did you not buy into the initial storyline? Or was there something that made you raise your eyebrows at the end of the evening here?
Lombardo: I'm definitely surprised by what we're seeing in Brooklyn, with incumbent assembly Democrats getting knocked off. I also think while we knew it was possible that the Hudson Valley would be a bad area for Democrats. It's actually really is coming to pass that Republican challengers like Mike Lawler are looking to be in pretty comfortable positions than the other races in Hudson Valley, the 18th with Pat Ryan, and the 19th are definitely too close to call at this point. But definitely nail biters that we thought they would be way up to see how they end up breaking.
Debo: All right, David Lombardo, host of the Capitol Pressroom evenings here at eight on WBFO.
