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Majority of New Yorkers think Trump will be re-elected

Eileen Elibol
Donald Trump campaigning in Buffalo in 2016.

A new Siena College poll found a majority of New York's registered voters believe Donald Trump is poised to win a second term.

By a 62%-29% percent margin, New Yorkers believe Trump will be re-elected. Of those registered voters, 81% are Republicans, 73% are Independents and 48% are Democrats.

Even so, Democrats will be voting for a Democratic candidate. Siena found they will vote for any candidate that is not Trump. Among registered Democrats, Bernie Sanders has the support of 25%, followed by Michael Bloomberg at 21%, Joe Biden at 13%, Elizabeth Warren at 11% and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar each with 9%.

Siena found 51% of Democrats prefer a candidate they agree with on more issues, while 45% want the candidate with the best chance to defeat Trump. And 33% of Democrats said Bloomberg has the best chance to beat Trump, followed by Sanders at 22%, Biden at 16% and the other three in single digits.

“Democrats from New York City and Democratic men say they’re likely to vote for a candidate they agree with more on the issues, as are 80% of voters under 35 years old," said Siena Pollster Steven Greenberg. "Downstate suburban and upstate Democrats, as well as liberal and older Democrats are inclined to vote for the candidate they see as having the best chance to beat Trump. Black, white and women Democrats are all virtually evenly divided.”

The latest poll also looked at Gov. Andrew Cuomo's ratings. Greenberg said they have been on a seesaw over the last year.

"Some months he’s a little above breakeven, some months he’s a little below," Greenberg said. "Since last month, Cuomo has taken a significant hit with Democrats, liberals, upstaters and younger voters. Interestingly, Cuomo’s 44 percent favorability puts him a little below the Assembly and the Senate, which each has a 46 percent favorability rating.”

On other issues, Greenberg said support for the new bail law – which took effect in January after passage as part of the budget last year – continues to plummet.

"In April, New Yorkers thought the new law would be good for the state by 17 points," he said. "Last month, voters said the new law is bad for the state by a margin of 12 points. Today, that margin for thinking the law is bad for New York has bulged to 26 points.”

Voters are also now evenly divided, 48%-48%, on the law allowing undocumented immigrants to get a New York driver’s license. Democrats, black and Latino voters continue to strongly support it, as independents and white voters oppose it and Republicans strongly oppose the law.

Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie remain largely unknown to voters. Among those voters who have an opinion, both have essentially breakeven favorability ratings.

Voters’ view on the direction of the state also slipped, as 41% now say the state is on the right track and 46% say it is headed in the wrong direction, down from 49%-41% last month.