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Will the threat of a U.S.-Canada tariff war damage relations with the region’s open border?

A view from the Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls, one of WNY's international bridges connecting Canada and the United States
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WBFO News
A view from the Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls, one of WNY's international bridges connecting Canada and the United States

Going back to the 1800s, the seamless and open border between the US and Canada has been a key economic linchpin in both the Southern Ontario and the Buffalo-Niagara region. But the proposed 25% tariffs that President Trump wanted to impose on Canadian-made goods bound for the US put a big dent in those relations - even with the 30 days pause now in effect.

True, late Feb. 3 a 30-day pause on the proposed tariffs between the US and Canada was negotiated by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Trump. But does resentment still linger? Especially between Southern Ontario and Buffalo-Niagara residents and businesses.

While there was resentment from some in Southern Ontario leading up to the Feb. 3 pause, the fact remains Canadian sports fans still made their way - and made their way in droves - to the two Buffalo Sabres and one Buffalo Bandits game held this past weekend at KeyBank Center.

And, a seasonally heavy dose of Southern Ontario license plates were spotted in the parking lots of the Walden Galleria and Fashion Outlets in Niagara Falls.

UB Economics Professor Dr. Neel Rao says that is not surprising.

“I think it's kind of an interesting scenario, because tariffs have not been like a big part of US government policy, or US government revenues for a long time, for maybe, 100 years, or so. Generally, we're kind of in the era of decreasing tariffs and increasing trade, this is kind of a shift in policy,” Rao said,

In fact, during this past weekend, passenger traffic from Canada into the US via the Lewiston-Queenston, Whirlpool, and Rainbow bridges was up 16 percent on February. 1 and 8 percent on February. 2.

Yes, the American anthem was booed at Ottawa Senators and Toronto Raptors games last weekend, but locally, it appears any cross-border resentment was minimal.

“US economy, there may be like disruptions in the supply chain, as you know, you're importing certain goods in Canada, selling some goods to Canada, and maybe you need to find alternative suppliers. So, I'd be a little bit concerned about it though, at this point given how uncertain everything is in terms of, like, the tariffs and negotiations, like, it's kind of hard to predict the impact this,” Rao said.

This weekend will be another test as will the rest of the month. For now, it is cross border business as usual.