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Debate analysis: Candidates gain little ground

Buffalo.edu

Monday's Presidential debate may have been widely watched, but the event is unlikely to provide either candidate with a boost in polls. That's the opinion of UB Political Science professor Jacob Neiheisel. "I don't think the chains got moved a whole lot."

If he was going to give one of the candidates an edge in last night's performance, Neiheisel may give a slight edge to Hillary Clinton.

"Trump's biggest problem, about a third of the way into the debate, is that he turned into Donald Trump. Clinton, conversely, looked Presidential and confident without being overly condescending."

Most polls show the candidates battling in a close race as the election draws close.

"I think the bulk of the electorate has made up their mind," Neiheisel said.

"There is surprisingly, even at this late date, and there will be some segment of the electorate going forward that is undecided, that does have equal considerations on both sides. And so there's still some ground to be gained."

Neiheisel points out that historically debates have not swayed overall voter opinions. The most notable exception was Mitt Romney's surge in the polls following his debate with President Barack Obama in 2012.

"Different pockets of media are starting to have an effect where you can insulate yourself into a cocoon that is very supportive of your own beliefs and you're not going to change aggregate poll numbers much because people are really listening to echo chambers," Neiheisel said.

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Jay joined Buffalo Toronto Public Media in 2008 and has been local host for NPR's "Morning Edition" ever since. In June, 2022, he was named one of the co-hosts of WBFO's "Buffalo, What's Next."

A graduate of St. Mary's of the Lake School, St. Francis High School and Buffalo State College, Jay has worked most of his professional career in Buffalo. Outside of public media, he continues in longstanding roles as the public address announcer for the Buffalo Sabres of the National Hockey League and as play-by-play voice of Canisius College basketball.