Several waves of rainfall, today and again Thursday night, will produce a total of 0.50" to 0.75" of rain over several days. While a deeper snowpack will absorb some of this rain initially, snowmelt and runoff will increase by Thursday and Thursday night, bringing elevated flows to area creeks and rivers.
Recent reports have indicated ice formation on the Buffalo area creeks, as well as creeks and rivers in the western Southern Tier.
As creeks and rivers rise, a mild airmass well into the 40s, and possibly lower 50s will encourage the creek and river ice to break, eventually leading to possible ice jams and subsequent flooding. The ice is not particularly thick, which will likely limit the potential for ice jam flooding.
Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.